Community Perspective
Alaska at a tipping point
Oil and gas drive, but how long?
Published Sunday, October 11, 2009
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Stumble It!When Ebenezer Scrooge was confronted by the ghosts of the past, present and future, he was changed. With nonprofits, associations, communities and advocacy groups preparing their priority lists for the upcoming legislative session in January, it is a natural time to take stock of Alaska’s past and present and seriously ask ourselves: What Alaska do we want into the future, not just in 2010, or 2014, but during our second 50 years of statehood?
In Alaska, the Institute of Social and Economic Research serves as the proverbial ghost of our past and present. If we look to our past, we can readily see the precariousness of our present. Roughly two-thirds of the growth in Alaska’s economy since statehood is directly attributable to oil. As University of Alaska Fairbanks Professor Terrence Cole notes, in economic terms: “Prudhoe Bay oil was worth more than everything that has been dug out, cut down, caught or killed in Alaska since the beginning of time.”
The influence of oil revenue on Alaska is all around us. ISER’s economists describe Alaska’s economy as a three-legged stool resting on the federal government, oil and everything else. While Alaskans are accustomed to predictions that the sky is falling and have grown tired of economists and politicians crying “wolf,” there are troubling signs in Alaska’s economy.
The Alaska Railroad recently cut one out of every five jobs due to declining revenue — primarily due to a dramatic slowdown at Ted Stevens International Airport. Less demand for jet fuel at the Anchorage airport really means less production at the Flint Hills refinery in Fairbanks. The railroad is merely the middle-man between two crucial elements of our regional economies. Layoffs at the railroad are simply an expression of troubles regionally. We can no longer afford to be passive in recognizing state and regional interconnections.
Will the ghost of Alaska’s future show us the trans-Alaska pipeline’s flow down to 500,000 barrels per day, edging precariously close to inadequate flow levels, because we curtailed development with “Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share” — a tax that has proved to strangle exploration, be globally regressive and unduly burdensome on the declining fields of the North Slope?
Will the Agrium plant on the Kenai Peninsula be up and running, producing fertilizer at a price Alaska farmers can afford and providing 600 jobs on the Kenai Peninsula, or will the plant have been scrapped and sold to China?
Will the cruise ship head tax be a large fund in the state’s treasury, encumbered by multi-decade long litigation, while tourism is strangled as cruise ship passenger numbers continue to decline?
Will Conoco be forced to pursue an import certificate for their liquefied natural gas facility, ending 40 years of exports? Will regulatory constraints lead to a lack of gas exploration in the Cook Inlet basin, setting the stage for an isolationist Alaska, rich in resources, yet dependant on foreign imports? Will our natural gas come from imports while we wait like Don Quixote for the ever-elusive, large-diameter pipe to be built?
Will the promotion of development on the outer-continental shelf and the unfaltering belief that the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act will lead us to fiscal certainty, and an eventual pipeline, cloud the issues that truly require our action today?
Will diesel-tethered Fairbanks resemble Flint, Mich.? Will our western hubs and villages resemble ghost towns? Will Alaskans be forced to relocate south to survive on imported gas, while owning vast resources in this state?
We can control the direction of our economy into the next 50 years. We must be self-reliant and commit willfully to changing the predictable outcome of our current path. Now is the time for the Alaska Legislature and the administration to roll up their sleeves and begin working on solutions, through the public process that gathers ideas from far afield and close to home — from experts, advocacy groups and you. We need a new vision of Alaska’s future that eliminates today’s negative economic drivers and builds an economic base that is independent, strong and diversified for all Alaskans. The actions or inactions we choose to take today will determine our path into the next 50 years.
Jay Ramras, a businessman and lifelong Fairbanks resident, has represented District 10 — eastern Fairbanks and Fort Wainwright — in the Alaska House of Representatives since his election as a Republican in 2004.
Community Discussion
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In a 2002 statewide election 138,000 Alaskans passed a law calling for the development of the All Alaska Gasline to Valdez. Voters on occasion are forced to act and pass laws when corrupt or incompetent legislators refuse to act for the public good. If the voters' mandate of 2002 had been followed, Fairbanks would have affordable natural gas and clean air TODAY. Rep. Ramras and his pals have done everything possible to stymie the voters wishes while pretending to work for the best interests of Alaskans. (Ramras also displays his contempt for the voters initiative to place a modest fee on cruise ships entering Alaska's ports. Needed upgrades to cruise ship facilities/ports should be born by the multinationals who, by the way, use Alaska waters to dump sewage- sometimes in violation of federal pollution laws).
The most recent nonsense espoused by Ramras is the Enstar "bullet" line that does not provide affordable gas and undermines the voters 2002 mandate. The Enstar deal and the more than five million in public funds given to that fiasco should have gone to the Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority to help ANGDA complete its voter mandate. But that isn't what Big Oil wants. And what Big Oil wants is what Ramras delivers.
Meanwhile we watch Russia advance the Sakhalin II LNG project and another LNG project from the Barents Sea with the probable help of ConocoPhillips. Canada moves ahead with its LNG project out of British Columbia. ExxonMobil advances its LNG projects out of Papua New Guinea and Australia. Funny that the 40 billion, 2BCF/D ExxonMobil project in Australia is economic while the 25 billion, 2.7BCF/D project out of Valdez is not. What nonsense.
If ever Alaska needed new leadership it is now.
Some of us have been warning that the decline in TAPS throughput since 1982 is exactly why ANGDA should have had help from the Legislature- in addition to affordable energy for Alaskans the surge of revenue from gas sales would have helped offset the decline in oil revenue. Instead Ramras has led the charge to deny what Alaskans voted into law.
Alaskans should be outraged.
Both Representative Ramras and his anonymous critic provide dire but competing scenarios, speculating about a still to be determined future. Neither is particularly compelling nor enlightening, and I find the vitriol of the secret critic as distasteful as Rep. Ramras' fear-mongering. Why does the News-Miner persist in encouraging anonymous criticism? Part of one's evaluation of statements of fact or opinion depends on the credibility of whomever makes the statement. Knowing that Rep. Ramras advocates one version of a gas pipeline that he claims will be a panacea for Interior energy needs makes his description of the past, present and future comprehensible but not necessarily convincing as an argument.
Mr./Ms. Anonymous obviously dislikes Ramras and provides largely an ad hominem argument and name-calling. It would have been more useful to me if more focus had been on the alleged progress of LNG projects in the paragraph about developments in Sakhalin Island, British Columbia, Papua New Guinea and Australia. The Daily News-Miner, by allowing mostly anonymous comments, promotes excessive appeals to emotion, exaggeration and irresponsibility. If one doesn't have to identify oneself, it is easier to get carried away. The anonymous Internet already gives this form of "Public Dialogue" more sound and fury than it does enlightenment. Why not at least return to your "Name on File" practice of a few years ago?
Don Gray, Fairbanks.
I believe we should not export one ounce of gas or oil until we have
full acess to these recourses to all alaskans and industry within
our borders. Build our own economy. We can not depend on the big
crooked corporations to watch out for our interests, they are only
interested in gushing our recourses out of the state and give us
pennies. When its gone we will still be arguing over whether or not
we can burn our wood stoves or what the religious zealots are trying to cram down our throats. Lets work for alaska for a change!!
Its bad enough to have to watch his commercials on TV.
Putak1st: your Port Authority plan was rejected by the state, becouse your group did not do it's "mandated job"! You failed the citizens of Alaska. Put the blame on yourselves, where it truly belongs:"man up"
admit your failures & don't blame anyone else! If you had done your job "as Mandated" Fairbanks would have natural gas today, you didn't thus we don't. It's just that simple!
"I find the vitriol of the secret critic as distasteful as Rep. Ramras' fear-mongering. "-DC Gray.
I have an honest question for you, Mr. Gray.
Are you certain Mr. Ramras is fear-mongering? In other words, do you feel confident we are not in a precarious situation, energy and economy-wise?
Do you think Alaskans are fully involved in solving these pressing problems, if you do see them as pressing?
I am more disturbed by the strange quiet and absence of sustained public debate and inquiry than by someone trying to break the silence and sound an alarm.
If you are not, I would like to hear why.
There will never be an All Alaska Pipeline to Valdez to export LNG. There is no place to store it in Valdez. There aren't enough LNG tankers on the planet to haul it out of Valdez. The west coast already has all the natural gas they need.
The single best way to make use of our natural gas reserves is a bullet line to Fairbanks and a pipeline across the top of Alaska to Canada's network of pipelines. How do people not understand that?
BP has a new add on TV showing the lower 48 and a little figure of Alaska in the corner. On various states in the lower 48 they use symbols to point out the types of energy, including natural gas, that these state are and will produce for the future needs of the US. On Alaska they show nothing. Remember one thing, oil was in the ground for for generations and generations before the 70's and so far only a few generations of Alaskan's have benefited. Alaskan resources have historically take care of the needs of it's people, not the greed. This past decade, greed has become the standard for development of gas and the spirit of Alaska has said no. There are future generations who will prove themselves better stewards and Alaska's spirit will reward them and their need just as it has for many generations of Alaskans in the past. The greedy have received their answer to gas development, no. Now the people need to begin to really determine what they need and what is based on greed and make the the legislature begin to respond to need not greed.
Rep. Ramras is correct in his analysis. You should tour western Alaska - his vision of ghost towns is actually what is occurring right now. I was recently told that McGrath high school was graduating six students this year. That may or may not be true, but it mirrors what I see right here in my own little village.
Economic development stems from hard-headed self-interest and the hard work of people turning raw materials into something of value. The self-interest is hard enough when it is connected to people in the lower 48 whose ideal of Alaska as a caribou preserve or a cruise ship park differs from those of us actually living here.
Creating value, however, is something that can be done and encouraged. Productive, wealthy countries do not become that way due to abundant resources - the resources of the Dutch are mud, swamps, and fish. Through their own efforts they created a wealthy country based on their own brains and ingenuity. Ditto the Japanese, who couldn't grow enough food on their own land, have no oil or coal, and no metals. They sent out people all over the world to gather ideas, came home, and then the people themselves created value with their own labor.
Mr. Ramras isn't fear mongering. Depending on government jobs and oil has worked for a while, but it's not a ticket to long-term success. Those of us who lived here before oil remember how Alaska was basically Appalachia on the tundra. It could return to that same place without forethought and planning.
Our main problem is distance. We're just too far away from the rest of the world. One solution: turn Alaska into another Switzerland, where money and banking occur with progressive laws protecting assets and profits. Money transfers don't care about distance. Another solution: become the hub of northern technology - think about all those Nokia tires from Finland. Find out how a place like Finland makes tires, then copy it and do it better. Another solution: find out something we can do better and promote the hell out of it. I ran into a woman last spring who told me that we have the best place on Earth for growing rhubarb. Promote it and sell the finished product - I'm sure bottles of juice don't mind a 3-month ride on a barge. If I remember correctly, cranberries were also a niche market until Ocean Spray got their hands on it. How about seed potatoes for the world from virus-free Alaska?
A concerted immigration plan - attracted professionals and productive people - would be a great idea, too.
Ramras is right about thinking ahead of time outside the box. Oil won't last forever.
think ahead of time to an Alaska where 50% of the greedy population leaves to find a better place to make their riches. What about all the gold mining towns that disappeared when the gold ran out. Look at the fishing communities. Alaska is a boom /bust history and the bust will take this State back to people who actually want to live here. Those who want to rape the resource, don't let the door hit you on your butt on the way out.
Mr. Ramras is pushing the Big Oil agenda 100%. The producers are pushing hard for a small diameter bullet line to buy them another 50 years to sit on our gas. That want to use Alaska as a warehouse to store their trillion of dollars worth of natural resources while they go ahead with larger LNG projects around the globe.
Oil companies factor is things like political stability of a region when deciding to invest in an area. Unfortunately for us the United States is the safest place to do business to they treat us like a bank while developing volatile areas where they know the governments would sell the resources to someone else or take over if they did not produce. If we allow a small pipeline to be built it will take all the pressure of a large pipeline and Alaska will go bankrupt as the oil continues to decline. Imagine the deal that the State will give the producers when the state treasury is $2 billion in debt and desperate for any new revenue due to declining oil production.
DonGray- your arguments would be better developed if you were not using straw man arguements- allege something not written and then attack the thing not written.
Pavel- the cost of the gas delivered to Fairbanks matters. If you want expensive gas then a bullet line will serve your objectives. A large diameter gasline has a massive economy of scale and provides affordable energy as well as new revenues for Alaska. Unless you are willing to give up your dividend and pay an income and sales tax you should want Alaska to begin selling the trillions of dollars of gas we own. An 'over the top' line does nothing for Alaska except allow our resources to be given away in violation of Article VIII of the Alaska Constitution. Dumping gas into a artificially depressed market (in Alberta) for boiling the tar sands is the worst possible scenario for Alaska. Note also that an 'over the top' route is currently against the law.
You might also note, Pavel, that LNG export opens the world markets to Alaska. If we are not tied to a single market we can command the best possible price for Alaska gas. Ask ConocoPhillips why they have been exporting LNG out of Alaska to the world markets for 40 years.
Redpoll- Your assertion that our main problem is distance in not true. Our geographic location on the planet is our BIGGEST benefit. We are closer to Pacific Rim markets than the Kittimat, BC LNG project- yet that project is moving forward. In addition Alaska investors think Alaska is a much better place to invest than Russia. Our stable constitutional republic is proven to be a much safer place to do business. And yes, Western Alaska has it tough. You are correct. That is why ANGDA has been working to advance a propane distribution plan for Alaska. When propane can be trucked south from Deadhorse it can be distributed along the river system(s) to the villages. Propane is easy to transport, and it does not have the environmental problems that diesel does. A propane leak merely evaporates while a diesel leak causes massive contamination. Just ask UAF what they had to spend to clean up their diesel spill at Toolik Lake- big bucks. The problem is ANGDA is advocating for public interest and not corporate interest. The millions Ramras and his pals gave to the Enstar silliness should have gone to ANGDA where solid work is being done.
"Will the ghost of Alaska’s future show us the trans-Alaska pipeline’s flow down to 500,000 barrels per day, edging precariously close to inadequate flow levels, because we curtailed development with “Alaska’s Clear and Equitable Share” — a tax that has proved to strangle exploration, be globally regressive and unduly burdensome on the declining fields of the North Slope?"-Rep Ramras
If I understand this correctly,declining pipeline flow is attributed to "Alaska's Clear and Equitable Share" tax.
While it is true North Slope crude oil production, (and thus also pipeline flow,) the decline has been going on for more than twenty years. See here,
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/L...
ACES was passed by the Palin administration, ie recently.
Since peak production in the late 80's, there has been very steady decline, leveling off at approximately 1/3 the production at peak. The level period of low production corresponds to the time ACES has been in effect.
The attempt to link ACES with lowered production is the sort of thing I don't appreciate very much. Unless ACES is squelching the discovery and development of a new PB, which I doubt, we won't appreciably increase oil production on the North Slope by eliminating it--we'll just reduce Alaska's revenue share. So, I am left wondering--what's behind the diss on ACES? Concern for Alaskans' needs or something else?
Alaskans' primary concern over the next 5-10 years is going to be survival. Globally, oil and gas supplies will likely remain elevated, thereby depressing prices and making dwindling Alaska production less competitive. Increasing environmental regulation, taxation(cap and tax), and litigation from the federal level will continue to make this situation even worse. Abandonment of TAPS will happen sooner rather than later if access to economically viable reserves is not soon granted.
Tourism next year will fare far worse than even this year was. As the next deflationary wave strikes the stock market in the next few months, many more "nest-eggs" are going to be wiped out, meaning far fewer retirees are going to have enough cash to visit Yellowstone Park, let alone Alaska. Increasing unemployment and falling incomes will also stifle the desire of working Americans to take extravagant vacations.
Construction at Fort Wainwright and other military/government facillities may continue to do well over the next year or two however, as the current government in Washington will pull out all the final stops on stimulus and puts the printing press on hyper-overdrive in order to stem the deflation.
At some point though, this will cease when the bond vigilantes arrive on the scene and force a crisis of a different kind. Here the government and the American people will have to make a final, fateful choice; both excruciatingly painful but only one of which leads to survival. That choice will be taxation/hyperinflation or.......putting government back into the constitutional box where it properly belongs.
Expect your politicians to choose what they perceive to be the "easy choice".
If Rep. Ramras chooses to run for governor, I hope he runs an issues oriented campaign that will focus on the issues he raises in his comments. I challenge him and all of the other candidates of all parties to run a smear free, issues oriented, positive campaigns so that we can learn what their programs and plans are. Too many times our politicians engage in mud slinging that does nothing to help us understand their goals and objectives so that we can make an informed decision on how we should vote in the 2010 election.
I want some specifics on a natural gas pipeline, oil and gas exploration policies, resource development, and an economic plan that moves us away from an oil and gas industry dependent economy.
A few specifics are needed and hopefully clearly articulated programs will be forthcoming from all of the candidates.
The contention that an idea canot stand alone is preposterous. I suppose that if I were to give my name the first thing that someone like gray would do is put it through the google ringer. What all bad things I have been accused of? That would then be his logical rebuttal of my ideas. No Mr gray, my ideas stand alone, many of them are ridiculous but if you can't deal with them that is your problem.
Wake up, Jay Ramras. You're in the middle of an unrealistic nightmare when there is a real nightmare on the horizon. If Exxon buys up Conoco's share of the gas on the North Slope, they'll build a large diameter gas pipeline to Canada. They will use our wet gas to make GTL and petrochems in BC and substitute cheap Canadian methane into the Lower 48 grid. All the jobs and development that could have happened here will happen in Canada instead, because you and other members of the Legislature have been brain dead and haven't supported the voter mandate. Get with the program or get out of office.
P.S. ---Sisu---ANGDA didn't fail. It wasn't funded. There's a difference. Anyone who tells you any different is a liar. Out of approximately 42 BILLION the Alaska Legislature has spent in the past seven years, 11 million went to ANGDA. And all along, ANGDA has been facing a 100 million a year JOB. When you are funded at a rate of one to a hundred, you do what you can---and so they have accomplished miracles with what little the geniuses in the Alaska Legislature gave them to work with. Don't point any fingers at ANGDA or AGPA. Point right where it belongs--Representative Ramras among them. And make different choices next time you are in a voting booth.
There is a trend in Fairbanks, and it is a bad one for the 'good old boy' Republicans. First the voters fired Rhonda Boyles. Then they sacked Ralph Seekins. Now they've categorically rejected Garry Hutchison who Ramras and his good old boy cronies gave a lot of money to. Now that Hutchison came in a distant third behind Tammie Wilson and Luke Hopkins the writing is on the wall. Ramras will be replaced next year.
Thank God.
If you want economic development, look to the ecology of Alaska and eco tourism. The Anchorage Daily News has an article how already ANWR is getting the boot again because of declining caribou herds. Those who love the land and want to protect it will be the winners over the busy beavers who have big dollar signs in their eyes thinking how can we make more money. Face it, the next several decades will be the bust and you better figure out how you can make the best of it.
Who is going to have money to spend on eco-tourism? When the US had solid currency and a good economy, tourism accounted for what? Less than 5% of the state's income? Now that people are scared and broke, you think that tourism is the answer to anything? Puh-leeez! If we don't use our heads and pull together and get the in-state gas pipeline going and a couple good products to help fund it, we are sunk. Got it? Sunk. Most Alaskans will no longer be Alaskans, because they will have to leave the state to make a living. Two out of three houses will be vacant and commercial real estate will be even worse off. We have NO choice but to get moving on gas development right NOW. It should have been taken seriously starting seven years ago. Ask Ramras why he didn't fund ANGDA and AGPA and lead the fight to get our voter mandated pipeline BUILT by now?
P.S. While you are asking Ramras why he hasn't gotten in gear and honored the voter mandate, ask the rest of the Fairbanks delegates,too? Why don't we have a gas pipeline right now, adding money to the state coffers and reducing our energy bills? Because Jay Ramras and others like him FAILED to honor what the voters wanted and told the Legislature to do in 2002. Oh, THEY knew better than the mere serfs they represent ---so now we have budget deficits and high energy bills and no relief in sight, and it is because? Repeat after me: 3 Governors and 7 Legislative Sessions DROPPED THE BALL, or we would have all these problems resolved and a gas pipeline system built by now.
Oil and Gas is, indeed, important to this State. It is a Natural resource that should be available to Alaska, First! We seem to be more concerned about getting money directly from it rather than using it to build our own economic base. We should sell, only what we don't need for ourselves. If there isn't enough left to sell, then leave it in the ground for our future. Petroleum isn't our only problem.
If we don't get a handle on the Natural resources of our waters, we could get mighty hungry and find that there is no longer any seafood to sell to anyone. Why doesn't every fishing vessel that comes within the 200 mile National limit, automatically become legitimate for Coast Guard inspection and search? How close must international fishing industry, come to our shores before we say, HEY, wait a minute here!!! There is a 12 mile limit inside of which, no one should come without serious considerations.
What is Home land security thinking? Maybe that fishing vessels can't carry ordinance? Economically, as a State, we don't receive much for our treasury. How much per pound, Per ton or per million fish, does the State take in from local fisherman as well as international fisheries? Native communities are hard pressed to get enough fish for their villages. Individuals get closed season and drops in catch limits, more and more. Where do all the fish go? Why must we have to clean our waters of fishing gear that breaks free or is purposely cut loose? There is certainly more than one issue in this State, to be concerned with. Go figure, huh!
We ARE concerned about intrusions into our fishing waters and illegal immigration and many other things that are wrong and most of it is because of corrupt politicians who don't respect the voters. Do you realize that you will have to pay an additional $1900 tax if this "Health Care Reform" passes? Next it will be dockside parties for the Japanese factory trawlers that continuously ignore our territory and ruin our fisheries. These things, like the lack of progress on a gas line --- all stems from corrupt government. It has to end. A house cleaning of major proportions is in order.
Yes, a sound idea is capable of standing on its own, absent a real name. There's a multitude of examples of this throughout history; magnificent writers, philosophers, and others who penned their works under pseudonyms.
Then there were the whistle-blowers, such as 'Deep Throat.' The fellow seemed to be 'on-the-money,' despite his being little more than an annonymous voice in a reporter's notebook, collected in the shadows of a D.C. parking garage. He ultimately clarified our perceptions concerning decency in politics, bursting many ballons of illusion and delusion.
-------
Fairbanksgas, yes, Jay seems to have pushed the agenda of Big Oil for some time.
Wasn't it last year that Jay, while sponsoring a bill that would've ultimately benefited British Petroleum, purchased $150,000.00 in BP stock; a clear misuse of his position, apparently aimed at personal gain.
It was front page in the ADN.
When confronted with the unethical nature of these events, Jay's 'remedy' was to purchase shares in the competing Canadian pipeline company, apparently believing this made everything well again. Interesting logic, there, I'd add.
Question: Why has no one yet filed a formal ethics complaint relative to that set of actions?
The 138,000 people who voted from a pipeline from the Slope to Valdez
were hardly a overwhelming majority of the state's voters, about 25 %
that is all! ANGDA & the Port Authority failed the people of Alaska,
despite most of our population didn't vote for it. Failure is failure
and both groups didn't make anything close to a pipeline come about.
They need to stop blaming others & circumstances for their failures.
ANGDA & the Port Authority must accept responcibility for their failed projects. Now is the time for others to take the lead to realistically decide if, how and when a natural gas pipeline can be built!
The feeble attempt to pump life back into the Port Authority by puchasing FNG's trucking of LNG to Fairbanks is a "non starter" from the onset. With a "too small" market to repay the cost of $250,000,000
bond issue "no one in their right mind" would invest by purchasing these bonds. The group couldn't even pay the "interest" on $250 million worth of bonds, muchless repay the principal amount. The current 1,100 customers plus GVEA is just too few to generate any
actual income, after spending the $250 million dollars. Anchorage will not be a customer for GVEA's electric power, so the whole concept
is a waste of time & effort!
Jay:
Man...I voted for you. I've been pulling for you all along, and for what? Where's your "first gas in five years," man? Oh, and lets not forget about standing up for Flynt Hills, and re-assuring us that there's "no evidence of price gouging."
You suck, Jay. Period. You're a transparent politician, albeit a good buisnessman. But what have you accomplished in office, besides talking a lot and doing very little? There comes a time where diplomacy has to stop, and production has to start. You, my man, have nothing to show for your time in office.
Unless they plan to siphon cheesesteaks and curly fries through a gas pipeline in the next five years, your lip service is going to do absolutely zilch to jumpstart that. Considering what you did for Jeff Cook, I'm not so sure I want you at the bargaining table anyway.
Thanks for nothing, Jaybird. Literally.
maybe jay ramos will look into
why propane is more than 3 dollars a gallon ..
when propane lists for .79 cents on the ny exchange..
some serious price gouging going on here
but nobody cares ...every body is on the take ..
except us working stiffs
The approval rating based on those 138,000 voters applied to the whole population, is over 70% approval, not 25%.
The Legislature would like everyone to believe that ANGDA "failed" but the fact is that they didn't FUND ANGDA, so the failure to get a gas line going is all theirs. They arrogantly ignored the voters. As usual. And now they want us to blame the victims.
The job ANGDA was supposed to do is a $100 million a year job. They've been given just over one million/year. Go figure. This isn't rocket science.
AGPA looking into purchasing FNG has nothing to do with ANGDA and everything to do with trying to soften the blow for Fairbanks. If you want to see things improve, get rid of Ramras. He has been trying to pad things for his cronies at Enstar instead of nailing down affordable fuel for his district. And then he uses his big mouth to scare everybody about the problems he refuses to address.
The reason propane is expensive is that most of it has to be trucked in from CANADA. That's how lame the situation is.
But it's not ANGDA's fault. It's Ramras's fault and the fault of his oil company buddies in the Legislature that ANGDA's effort has never been properly funded or advanced.
When I first saw this article's title, "Alaska at a tipping point," I thought, "Oh, an article about Wal-Mart customers."
My heating bill was higher than my mortgage last winter and all Jay Ramras could do was further delay the effort ANGDA is making to get a pipeline and cheap propane to Fairbanks.
Well, here's a message Mr. Ramras: we know that you should have funded ANGDA and you didn't. And we know who benefits from that---the oil companies. Duh.
Every time I get my fuel bill this winter you can bet I am looking forward to November, 2010.
Yellowfang, you are arguing with a blog troll, "sisu", whose wife wouldn't let him use her login name any longer because even she didn't agree with his posts. Sisu actually does a lot of benefit by playing the devil's advocate and playing the role of the uninformed dumba##. The poor grammar and the lack of coherent, logical thought really makes opponents of ANGDA look foolish. His last post is remarkable. He argues that elections don't count. When a landslide approval of ANGDA occurs it really doesn't count because all those minor children didn't vote. When ANGDA or AGPA look for low cost alternative options until the gas line gets built that's bad too. But to blame the two groups for not having a gasline is like blaming Martin Luther King for the lack of civil rights in the early 1960's. Blame the people actually working to get the voters wishes fulfilled, and not the plethora of crooks who have pulled out all the stops to kill the citizens' initiative. Clark, Murkowski, Knowles, Kohring, Kott, Cowdery, Masek, Anderson all directly used their offices to stop the voters mandates and they get a pass from Sisu even while some of these elected officials are now convicted felons. Amazing.
That's right, there's no point in arguing with Sisu. People have to lift their heads and think for themselves, but thanks, YellowFang, for raising the bar and trying to help.
I used to really like Jay Ramras. I thought he cared about people. I no longer think that. Three times now I have tried to get it across to him that the cost of fuel matters, but he won't listen or explain how he thinks that the small number of gas users (around 220,000) in Alaska can pay for a $5 billion (with a "b")pipeline that only delivers a small amount of gas to local customers.
This "bullet line" he's advocating is crazy. There's no way we could afford it without big industrial customers, and if we had big industrial customers, the pipeline he is describing would be too small! His whole argument just chases its tail and goes nowhere--which is where we are, still, seven years after the voters told the whole state government to get moving.
Thanks for the advice. I feel sorry for people who are paying these high energy prices and feeling frustrated and not knowing who to blame. Sisu sees the name, "Alaska Natural Gas Development Authority" and thinks that ANGDA has the responsibility, so they must have the money, too. Right? Most people don't understand how the politicians like Ramras do things.
It wouldn't occur to Sisu that the legislature would create ANGDA and then just leave it hanging without the money to do the job it's supposed to do---but there you have it in a nutshell. That's what Ramras and Company have done. Last year they didn't appropriate any money for ANGDA at all---that's how serious they were about getting gas to Fairbanks. Ramras gummed everything up with his whacko "bullet line"---which as nellydurrance pointed out---can't work no matter which way you go with it---so things have been delayed for another year, thanks to Mr. Progress.
He spent the whole legislative session making threats, shooting off his mouth, hatching schemes---and what do WE have to show for it? ---At least another year of delay before we get a pipeline started. If I were Jay Ramras I wouldn't say one "peep!" about most of the things he brings up in this article, because one way or another he contributed to the downside of most of them.
Ramras,
Keep your pie-hole out of politics and go back to your pitiful roots doing Food Factory commercials! YOU are THE shame for all Alaskans!
Alaska, a land that imports everything it wants, and exports the one vital resource we need. I'd say Alaska is tipping towards shooting itself in the oil pan. Alaska, an oil rich tundra with residents paying more for gasoline than the globe pays for what we export. California pays less for our gas than we Alaskans do.
You have idea and statistic people, and then there those people who get the job done.
Once, you get Alaska government to talk with the unions, to talk with Canada, to talk with the oil companies to export oil, we'll be using green energy. They'd all do better to set a good example of what Alaska can do to supply energy to Alaska first.
DistantThunder where are you?
star_trails you got it wrong again under your new handle. No wonder the port authority failed, you are still full of misinformation that you are trying to feed the public. Love the way you screw up every time you try to guess who is who. By the way, what hair brain idea are you working on now to try to get the public to pay for. The Port Authority is a complete failure and the State needs to open an investigation of this group and prosecute those found to have misused public money. Hopkins who is part of this group should openly disclose to the public the information the group hides on where is the money is and who the secret partners are. Why would anyone trust him as Mayor is he is part of a secret organization.
Put_Alaska_First
10/11/2009, 12:38 a.m.
" In a 2002 statewide election 138,000 Alaskans passed a law calling for the development of the All Alaska Gasline to Valdez."
-------
Anyone ever tell you a state wide ballot prop expires after 2 years?
Your cause died in 2004 and has been dead 5 years.
As I recall, your case did not have enough management ability to file required timely paper work and became the laughing stock of the political whorehouse.
How about moving on?
Or getting bereavement therapy?
There are other causes worthy of your intellectual abilities.
-------
As for Jay, he backed a loser for borough mayor (Hutch), and continues to endorse state royalty oil price gouging @ $72 per barrel and mark up of 9 times the wholesale cost ie: $8!
So, Jay what have you done to earn re-election? No gas line, no trucked LNG, no powerline to the slope, and the GVEA fuel charge is more than the cost of electricity which makes the total KWH close to 17 cents each.
How about some freeway overpasses? Before the freeways turn into a LA style parking lot?
How about defunding state EPA-- they are worried about boogie man 2.5s from less than 1 woodstove per 5 square miles to justify their worthless jobs. Use their budget to pay for cutting the royalty oil tax!
How about limiting the state's royalty oil wholesale price profit -- to the $8 wholesale cost plus a 20% profit which would bring the cost of #2 oil down to less than $1.23/gal! Like it used to be.
Do something useful! Such as representing 51, 60, 70, 90% of the people in your district?
" By the way, what hair brain idea are you working on now to try to get the public to pay for. The Port Authority is a complete failure and the State needs to open an investigation of this group and prosecute those found to have misused public money. "-FD
I would like to echo this.
I was born in Alaska and the only stick I have in the fire is I'd like to be able to die here, too. (Not prematurely, though.)
My interest seems different from that of "public servants" and representatives who seem to have a hidden agenda of financial interest which causes them to tout proposals which have little or no feasibility.
I seriously doubt either the bullet line or ANGDA offer an actual solution because as they now stand, neither is feasible economically.
This lack of economic feasibility is to be overcome using public dollars, but I doubt it. The track record for Alaskan politicians asking us to rely on blind trust or have us believe they work for our interests alone, is poor. I am not sure we survived intact from our recent oil-industry corruption scandal.
In the last analysis, the only thing to recommend either the bullet line or ANGDA is: we must DO something. Yes, we must DO something. What will we DO when we sweep the decks of special interest and profit-driven proposals masquerading as public works or good deeds?
If I might add what I believe is a correction, 1AkFox. A ballot proposition doesn't 'die' after 2 years. A ballot proposition, like legislation passed by the legislature, becomes law.
The 2-year reference concerning ballot propositions is in re. to prohibiting legislative meddling for 2 years, unless the meddling involves a similar substitute. The 'substitution loop hole' has been used when the legislature hasn't liked the public's vote on specific issues. (I'll abstain from giving specific, politically-charged, pertinernt examples of some of those times when the legislature has done this dance, revealing their disdain for public process...)
>>>""I am not sure we survived intact from our recent oil-industry corruption scandal""<<<
Many folks would like to think the corruption investigations ended, but they did not. There's been a time-out of sorts while the feds effectively slap the wrists of their own prosecutors, who got caught being 'overly-motivated' and engaging in some not-so-uncommon dirty pool.
The sentencing of Don Young's aid, Bill Allen, and Jim Clark (all three), are all postponed pending further cooperative witness testimony by the three, as part of their plea agreements.
There is LOTS of other evidence in the hands of the feds, and it goes beyond the oil fields and suites at the Baranof..
Personally, I'm anxiously looking forward to a LIVELY round 2, (or perhaps even a round 3), with a bowl of popcorn and a nice iced lemon water.
Fox- An initiative is a law passed by the voters. The law does not automatically expire after two years. You are incorrect. The Legislature, however, may try and repeal the law but only two years after passage. A dangerous thing to try and do as about 80% of the voters believe the All Alaska gasline should be built to Valdez as they instructed. If voters were allowed to appropriate money then the line would have been built by now and you would not be unhappy about how much we are being gouged for fuel oil.
The wholesale (hub) price of natural gas right now is about $4.00 per million BTU's.
By comparison, $2.69 buys you only 139,000 BTUs of energy from fuel oil.
http://law.justia.com/alaska/constitutio...
http://touchngo.com/lglcntr/akstats/STAT...
Darfur- all the info you need about your conspiracy theory may be found right here:
http://www.hoptechno.com/paranoia.htm
Take a look at the outcome of the World Gas Conference held this past week. With the new technologies it is estimated that the US and world have a 60 year natural gas reserves. Put Alaska First, the port Authority has lost. The US and foreign countries do not need high price Alaskan gas. Heck , they are warning Russia to be prepared for a down turn of income from gas as surpluses build. CIRI if it is able to make it's project work has given Anchorage its solution. Put Alaska First, the Port Authority is a dime short and a day late, even it's plan to truck gas will result in a failure. No wonder your application failed, your group works with pipe dreams not reality. Find a project that will work and it seems CIRI just may have a solution, not a pipe dream. Time to face reality and deal with what is happening in the world. There is plenty of gas elsewhere and the crisis is vanishing before your very eyes. Want to work on something, figure out how to store large amounts of renewable energy and you may actually have a product the world needs.
FreeDarfur 10/12/2009, 7:49 a.m. "Love the way you screw up every time you try to guess who is who."
Well, Darfur, how would YOU know the answer about who is who if you weren't connected to sisu?
Go back and read my post- I never mentioned 'FreeDarfur' at all.
Funny that you would make that connection for us.
LOL
Here you are, Free Dafur, Sisu, et al---supposedly "environmentally conscious" advocating CIRI's underground coal plant. Duh? There are underground coal fires that were started last CENTURY in West Virginia that are STILL raging out of control. All it takes is one mistake and we could have that same outcome. Our coal resources need to be managed responsibly, too. I looked at CIRI's plan and it holds no guarantees against a West Virginia-style debacle, therefore I pretty much assume that their initiative is going to be Dead on Arrival so far as permitting goes. Meanwhile, carpers like you are responsible for the fact that Alaska is indeed a day late and a dollar short, but that doesn't mean that we cannot or should not develop our natural gas.
I just got home from work---you, too, YellowFang? ---and logged back into this discussion, because it seems there is a lot of stupid misinformation out there.
We have options. We are actually in a good position, because we haven't bitten any hooks yet. One of the things we can still do with our gas is GTL---make our North Slope gas into synthetic diesel and gasoline instead of trying to compete in a glutted natural gas market. We could do that right here, in Valdez and on Cook Inlet. That way we'd have a sure domestic market on the West Coast for our liquid fuel and have access to natural gas and GTL at home. That's the best of all the options we've seen.
Who knows? Maybe you'll get the last word on this one, Nelly--- GTL is cool. That's what the oil companies want to do with our gas, so why not do it ourselves? We could keep the benefit at home instead of exporting it to Canada or trying to float a lifeboat (LNG) off a sinking ship (the natural gas market in general)----? Nah, that would be too smart. Jay Ramras would never go for it....or would he? He's done everything else backwards. Let's push the idea of LNG, then do a full reverse and push GTL....maybe, somehow, we'll get something going here....
"We are actually in a good position, because we haven't bitten any hooks yet."-ND
Excellent point.
Let's see we don't bite any hooks until we have selected the best option available.
I have one tiny quibble. We are on the hook for AGIA to the tune of about 2.5 billion dollars in treble damages which come into effect if we go with any project other than TransCanada's.
The courts could overturn that if anyone brought suit, and there is good basis for doing so: the State of Alaska already had a statutory obligation to the voters resulting from Proposition Three, which the Legislature ignored. That would require (a) TC would be restricted under AGIA to building an in-state gas pipeline, North Slope to Valdez, or (b) the whole agreement would be thrown out. The Legislature also has various grounds it could use to break the contract if it goes in a way that is not beneficial to Alaska. The best route would probably be if Alaskans just get together, decide on a good value added product---LNG or GTL or both---and have TC build the in-state pipeline under AGIA, which is already an option that AGPA secured.
Good stuff in this thread, too tired to jump in.
Corrine, I'll contact DT regarding his absence.
For pity's sake, don't people realize that TC agreed to build EITHER a pipeline to the hub in Alberta OR a pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez OR BOTH, if they both got enough buyers to justify it? Our options are still there. They'd probably build us a pipeline to Bristol Bay if we had sellers at one end of the pipe and buyers at the other! TC is a pipeline company. They don't care who ships gas or who buys it, so long as they keep shipping large amounts of it for a long time.
My point is that we need to keep the production end of that pipeline in Alaska, not Canada. We need the jobs and the factories and everything that goes with it right here. Anything else is just plain stupid. Why should we ship our gas to Canada so they can make GTL and plastics and only the Lord knows what else out of it, while we sit here unemployed and watching it all flow past us? That's what we did with the oil---employed a lot of people ELSEWHERE.
I think the Legislature, including Mr. Ramras, should have listened to the voters all along. The people had more horse sense than their representatives. But it's not too late. We could still get some good products figured out and go for it ourselves.
roadie said:
"I suppose that if I were to give my name the first thing that someone like gray would do is put it through the google ringer."
roadie, you already have told us your name. You said it was Max Johnson. You shouldn't post while in a blackout... seek help,start with AA.. it is free.
dog
http://s281.photobucket.com/albums/kk209...
Hi Corinne ;-)
We Can Do It !!!
http://www.mediabistro.com/agencyspy/ori...
Me and all the grrrlz in Fairbanks can build this gasline while all you guys are still yammering about it.
...........flash/rumble
http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Swe...
FreeDarfur... while your chasing sheep in Sudan, Blacklightpower is making bank on inverse-Rydberg hydrogen..
http://blacklightpower.com/
...before you know it we'll be installing a 48" vacuum-sewerpipe to your house using Trenchless Technology.
This bigwhopper sewerline will be made from AlaskanHDPE..
This HDPE will be made from AllAlaskan ETHANE found under Deadhorse..
and this C2H4-ethane will arrive in Fairbanks in a refrigerated polypipe
http://s281.photobucket.com/albums/kk209...
We will all be pleasantly surprised the next time you flush your toilet.
This is the 21stCentury..
not the 12thCentury as many politicians desperately hope you would believe.
http://www.herrenknecht.com/uploads/pics...
After we build the little propane-polypipe to Fairbanks..
then we begin building a 95%HDPE+2%coppernickel+3%basaltfiber cryogenic gasline to Valdez..
this cryogenic gasline will ship 5bcfd of LNG-methane to Valdez from a liquefaction plant built in Deadhorse.
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&s...
Yeah, us Alaskans can build a cryogenic/fiberoptic gasline to Hawaii too
.................flash/rumble
When it falls apart in July, then maybe people will face the reality once and for all that the gas will belong to future generations . Forty years ago there were just as many people screaming for a gas line and in forty more years there will be people screaming still for one. Can you people just accept Fairbanks for what it is a college/military town that will never be a hub for anything else. If you want the big city life, move. If you are all such experts, why has no one in this State adopted any of your ideas. I am sure the oil companies are just running to you to buy and use your ideas. Ya, right.
"Can you people just accept Fairbanks for what it is a college/military town that will never be a hub for anything else. If you want the big city life, move."
You may be right about things falling apart in July (not sure why you specifically pick July,) but I see very compelling reasons for not simply accepting this as inevitable.
Pre-pipeline, greater Fairbanks had a population of around or less than 5,000. If Fairbanks shrinks back to something near this level, that will be the biggest catastrophe I will have ever witnessed. What's more, this shrinking and exodus will be occurring at the worst possible time because Fairbanksans will be forced to enter the Outside's economy at its low point. They'll be entering an economy at its low point with the disadvantage of newcomers.
We couldn't have picked a worse time for our state's crisis to come to a head.
Yusef- Try 30,000. And that was 35 years ago.
For all you "the voters mandated it" people, the voters have mandated a lot of things like moving the capital and Susitna. Unfortunantly mandating and paying the bills are two different things. The gas pipeline in any of its incarnations will be built when someone can make a buck off it. And not before. Unless the state (shudder, shudder, can you say Delta AG.) decideds to blow its whole wad on building it.
"What Alaska do we want into the future, not just in 2010, or 2014, but during our second 50 years of statehood?"
Unfortunately, politicians only make policy based on short term political gain (re-election). There is little incentive for politicians to make policy for the long run. Unfortunately, very few voters think about the long term effects of policies. How many Obama voters considered the judicial nominees that will be appointed by him and be in place for decades after he is long gone either interpreting the law or making it as they see fit? I doubt it was very many at all. It is much more emotionally satisfying to just enjoy the short run promises and goodies. Rarely do voters think beyond stage one.
A good book on this issue is "Applied Economics: Thinking Beyond Stage One" by Dr. Thomas Sowell. It is written for everyday citizens.
http://s281.photobucket.com/albums/kk209...
As I read thru everybody's comments I get the persistent feeling that despite my slide-show getting a million visits from anybody interested in this issue, but very few of you understand plain english in a "cocktail napkin" sized business plan...
What is it most of you don't understand about a $100million investment that pays itself completely off in less than 1year and provides a profit of at least $250,000 per day ??
A durable robust corrosion-free pipeline with a 100year service life.
Plus, aside from the direct profits, the indirect profits from the improvement of Alaska's energy&industry situation is greatly improved by the construction of this little gasline..
and it could be installed in 90days [after 1year of preparations]
A project that could be easily cloned for a 2nd and 3rd and 4th time each of the following years without further need of financing..
a project that could realize a direct profit of $36.5billion and indirect revenues of 10times that amount.
...GEEZ!!!
If I posted a big sign in my front yard that said:
"DON'T STEP IN THE DOG POOP YOU IDIOTS !! "
I would still have to refuse you entry into my cabin because your boots are loaded with poop...
We never had an energy crisis, it's always been a mental health crisis.
I could throw a fistfull of freshly mined gold nuggets at your feet,
and you would refuse to pick them up because of your inbred goat-roping paranoid suspicious superstitious phobias.
I'd have better luck doing business in Alaska if I brought a 100,000gallons of cheap industrial grade Russian Vodka from Khabarovsk to Anchorage..
wetbrained fools!!
...............flash/rumble
DistantThunder-
I'm sorry. That's about how I feel about it these days. Perhaps CRR shouldn't have roped ya in on this one. It's frustrating.
But I'm with ya; just pretty broke. Heating fuel/property tax time and all ya know...
"What is it most of you don't understand about a $100million investment that pays itself completely off in less than 1year and provides a profit of at least $250,000 per day ??"
Your ideas should be pursued. Feel free to contact me, if I can be of assistance.
Hang in there Corrine,
So much of the rest of the world, especially the U.S., is only beginning to appreciate the gravity of the fix (es) we are truly in.
We have experience, durability and survival instincts honed through many episodes of things not going our way all the time.
As Hunter S. Thompson opined: "When the going gets tough, the weird turn pro."
Help comes when least expected too.
Corinne-
Thanks for your warmhearted sympathies..
CRR and his family gets plenty of credit for making this happen..
I still might make a surprise return visit to Alaska on a grand old motoryacht..
[doing a boat delivery to beyond Singapore]
Thanks Yusef.. we'll get together too ASAP..
Actually these ideas about maximum utilization of HDPE are indeed being taken seriously by many influential people.. but like any innovation in the history of industrial development there is a behind the scenes controversy and the true story of invention gets blurred by the glory-robbing grandstanding bigwigs.
AK-DOT and JPO are ready for me to begin..
the ROW is already established..
the blank permit forms are already waiting to be filled out and filed..
silent heroes of industrial finance are quietly working behind the scenes organizing the instruments of finance..
the propane/ethane gas-processing and separation facility is being designed and built..
..etc,etc..
...I've had this idea in my heart since 1974 when I first heard about somebody passing propane thru HDPE-pipe, and I also heard from guys who worked on the slope about the gasfield composition and size estimates.
...so sometimes I feel a need to blurt out a big volcanic RANT !!
Yeah, some folks need to be dunked in the watering trough until their feet quit kicking and the bubbles quit.
Propane & Ethane & Helium are Alaskan's Royalty Heritage Resource.
These valuable fractions of Alaska's Gas are more fungible than the dismal-dollar on the global market. These resources can be traded directly for the tools and equipment for Alaskans Self-Determination and Homegrown Economic Growth..
it's a revival of the Global Trading Post.
Alaska's Economy is at peril if it is traded thru the money machinery of NewYork or other goofy places like LasVegas or Amsterdam, London or Moscow.
Efficient Use of these resources is crucial, and we must not be sloppy because we have such a huge supply on hand now...
we will not pass this way again until we reach Titan/Saturn.
..so I also do fully support other efforts of utilizing CleanCoal, and all other efficient options.
More than a year ago I was dropping hints about coal-UCG, and now I'm very happy to see CIRI pursuing this in Beluga.
Usibelli has great potential to be beyond green utilizing the latest tech of 100% CO2 recovery in value-added processes.
The Golden Age of Alaska has just begun...........
Sounds like Distant Thunder is on the job----have you talked to ANGDA about your idea? They were investigating plastic pipe "Smart Pipe" and working on a propane spigot on the Slope this whole past year, so you aren't alone in the idea. I'm just wondering if you talked to those folks or not?
YellowFang-
Yes,Thanks.. Good Message about ANGDA..
www.ourgas.us
ANGDA/AGPA has been doing a great job of keeping me informed..
..we trade blurbs and barbs and groaners as ofter as we can.
"Smart Pipe" is a natural evolution of creatively combining fiberoptic-SCADA and pipelines. Fiberoptics and HDPE-polypipe go together like pie-&-icecream.
Telecom companies have already been installing thousands of miles of fiber in polypipe conduit.. but nobody stopped to think of the possibility of passing propane in that same conduit along with the fiber.. it still can be done and retrofitted if the plumbing fittings are reworked.
If you dig into my previous posts from last year you'll see I made many references about a "smartgaslinenetwork"...
All of Alaska can be covered in polypipe and fiber-broadband.
http://s281.photobucket.com/albums/kk209...
A coastal subsea propane-in-polypipe-fiber-in-conduit from Kaktovik to Ketchikan is something we can talk the War-Department into funding.. yeah, I swear I heard a caribou say something to a moose in the Urdu language, and the moose replied in the Pashtun language.. then the grizzly bear was speaking Russian, and a wolverine was speaking Chinese, and a beaver was speaking Japanese... this evidence of foreign terrorist invasion should get the CongressCritters excited...
A subsea coastal defense C3-communications network to defend us from invasive species from another galaxy !!
...or was I just hallucinating from hypothermia??
Not enough propane on the coast I guess.
I see some of you are getting excited about GTL..
http://angtl.com/
---
http://www.energixresearch.com/
---
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2009/02/...
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gPe2rXTte...
---
http://www.google.com/search?ie=UTF-8&am...
---
If you read enough about GTL you'll see that if you pass methane over nano-catalysts in a reactor you will cluster the methane into more manageable and beneficial molecules.
Another valuable Alaskan resource is catalysts..
if your grandfather was a miner he probably tossed out much more value in metallic catalysts from his sluicebox than the meager gold he recovered.
Spectroscopy is the science that tells you how to find your pot of gold at the end of the rainbow..
http://www.photon-control.com/spectrosco...
---
http://www.horiba.com/
---
http://www.innovx.com/
---
...yeah, it's possible to build a polypipe from Deadhorse to Fairbanks that you pump billions of cube feet of methane into, and out the other end comes a variety of high quality liquid hydrocarbons...
...did you know that if you sink a 12" HDPE polypipe down 15,000feet and feed the end with a HDPE-clad-steel riser-pipe down the subsea-shelf dropoff at the end of Kayak Island you can compress the methane to the same energy density as LNG ?? This polypipeline can carry 5bcfd of methane and a big-fat fiberoptic cable from Alaska to Seattle..
the same trick can be used to subsea pipeline all the gas Hawaii needs from Adak to Midway to Honolulu.
Hint: you drill an 1/8" hole in the polypipe every 3 feet.. it carries the gas better that way --- (;-P)
You get one of my gold nuggets if you can figger this one out.
Thank you DT!
I didn't think you had abandoned "we free thinkers" up here, but you hadn't checked in a few days ago.
So, are we hostage to SOA government & development permits to utilize the fuel beneath our feet?
What can we do to help DT?
Gas for AK first then look at everyone else. It would help. But as usuall our politicians want to whine and cry and do NOTHING! Yet people do not vote these people out and replace them with hopefully someone who will DO something and ACT! So those who vote the same person in every election time that does not try to get this gasline going they are the ones to blame why after so many years we still are not seeing any gas.
Dove- "What can we do to help DT?"
LOL.. ROFLMAO -- :-@
Actually, fully developing Alaska Resources for the benefit of Alaskans does not require any government participation..
..we only need government to get out of the way.
We don't need banks to confuse us with fractional reserve banking either.
I left all my gold in The Riverbank of Alaska for safe keeping..
it's a much safer place to keep it than The Federal Reserve Bank.
Go buy yourself some propane tanker trucks first...
http://www.truckpaper.com/list/list.aspx...
Propane tankertrucks that burn propane for fuel are great..
or a Cummins NatGas EMD-hybrid is best, because they can burn raw field gas for fuel [and these trucks can collect propane without needing a gas-separation plant].
Start hauling your own propane off the slope..
at 30cents/gallon you can drive that truck 25,000miles for $750 !!
DON'T WASTE THE PROPANE !!!
Make some propane trades to TriCon in Wiseman and ITH in Livengood..
use this placer to get a LPG tankership.
http://www.shiplink.info/contents1.asp?r...
---
http://www.ngl.co.jp/e_ship15.html
now this is when I wanna be on the bridge of this ship and have a little Maritime Law discussion about the JonesAct with the skippers of the USCG/Navy ships and subs.. TeeHee!!
Actually the first shiploads of propane will be destined for Japan to trade for the machinery equipment Alaskan's need to make plenty of big HDPE-polypipe.
...or I can skip the ship trade, and build my own extrusion dies and feedscrews in machine shops in westcoast machineshops..
sometimes you gotta rebuild the 90year old lathe to make the parts you need,dang! ...then we need to pirate some other tangled up dilapidated american junk too..
work your fingers to the bone, and whuddyoo get?? BONY FINGERS!!
thankGOD for Rapid Prototype Stereolithography and 12megapixel digital cameras..
I'd rather just go trade some gas for gizmos in Asia..
I already have an Import/Export license for China, so that helps, maybe.
Anybody gotta 25,000DWT tweendecker ungeared cargoship they wanna donate?
lol ROFLMAO!!!!!!!! >@
Don't be surprised if we get a caravan of propane trucks going, Distant Thunder. If you need some team players, otherwise known as "volunteers",...jusy say the word.
WTG Distant Thunder
Go CIRI, the one company in Alaska that may have a new way to produce energy and is actually spending it's own money and developing it on their own land and may have it done by 2014.
US Natural Gas Fund announced that it is moving any where from some to all of it's investments in natural gas futures to other parts of the industry because of the future regulatory changes. They are saying this could mean the lowering of the floor on how low gas prices could fall.
FreeDarfur- you're always so full of cheery news. BTW, it's still a warzone.
I read a book last month called _The_Snowflake_Rebellion_. It's written by an Alaskan down in Anchorage. From a hypothetical viewpoint it presents an interesting what if for Voegler's vision.
I personally have zero issues with an outside company developing our resources with the proviso that for every contract they pursue there would be a caveat attached requiring them to develop the resource/infrastructure for use by our state's residents first. After the infrastructure is built by proxy or by resident get'er done the company will be able to export the resource to balance their costs and generate profits from the venture.
I'm not shedding a tear over Flint Hills possibly having to switch production from jet fuel. Perhaps they will wake up to the local economy instead of shipping all our gas to Anchorage. A state mandate of price matching lower 48 prices would not be a bad idea either. The $1.00+ per gallon extra we pay is cooking the goose.
DT- how will that poly pro stand up to beaver and porcupine teeth? They've done some major damage on any plastics I've ever left outside(ATV fenders, sprinkler heads, hoses, canoe, lawn chairs and tables, etc.)?
DT- how will that poly pro stand up to beaver and porcupine teeth?
Rodent Repellent compounds are easy to add to the HDPE..
most of the time the polypipe will be buried 48" below gravel anyways.
Rodents like to chew on warm plastic, when the propane line is in operation it will be refrigerated to -10F to -30F.
SCADA fiberoptics built into the wall of the pipe provide excellent intrusion detection pinpointed at the system operators office in Fairbanks.
Approved T-taps can be easily installed anywhere in the system.
Unapproved T-taps will be dealt with swiftly -- :-)
The Railroad could haul LNG from the Slope to the Mines (Red Dog, Pebble, etc)to use as fuel for operating and haul ore Outside to the Smelters/Refineries.
The Construction and Operation of new Rail would provide jobs and open up more of Alaska to Alaskans by linking the "Hub" Cities to "Urban" Alaska and the rest of the world, enhancing the quality of life for All Alaskans. And it will be profitable.
Decades have been wasted on natural gas talk which could have been used to develop alternative energy. Other communities in Alaska are doing and have done things to address their energy needs. Why has Fairbanks done nothing. Could it be the leadership of this community has been more vested in personal gain than community gain. Heck there are power plants in the lower 48 burning wood waste products to produce electricity. But heck why use the wood around here to produce energy when it can produce forest fires that bring more income into the community why the people choke on the air. By the way the communities producing energy by wood aren't on the EPA hazardous air list. For all the arm chair experts who know how to do it, where were you forty years ago when the gas talk started, You have had decades to present your concepts, why has no one adopted any of them?
To put it gently, IT'S OVER! As any reputable geologist will testify, oil is a finite resource. Reserves, including those in the Prudhoe Bay complex, go through a production curve. The Prudhoe Bay fields are now on the right/downward slope of that curve. Check the production records and you will see that production peaked out in the 1979, and it has been declining since. The rising price of oil has helped to conceal the full implications of the decline. The truth is that there is little chance that another giant oil reserve on the scale of Prudhoe is in the foreseeable future of Alaska. Smaller deposits that are ultimately far less profitable to develop may be found, but they almost certainly will not reverse the general downtrend in overall oil production. The party is ending, and it is time to face the sober facts. The annual PD checks will shrink - and eventually disappear. Money for the multitude of state government funded projects and services will decline along with oil production. When the party is over most people go home. The southbound lane of the Alaska Highway is likely to get crowded.
"Alaska’s crude oil production peaked in 1988 at about 738 million barrels, which was equal to about 25% of total U.S. oil production. In 2008, it was about 250 million barrels, or about 14% of total U.S. production.
Since the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System from the North Slope of Alaska was finished 1977, about 96% of total Alaskan production has come from the North Slope. The rest comes from Southern Alaska.
Most Alaskan oil has gone to refineries in Alaska, California, Hawaii, and Washington. Relatively small amounts were shipped to Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and foreign countries.
Export of oil transported in the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System was banned until 1996. Between 1996 and 2004, a total of about 95.49 million barrels of crude oil, equal to 2.7% of Alaskan production during that period, was exported to foreign countries. As of September 2009, no Alaskan oil has been exported since 2004. "
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/ask/crudeoil_fa...
NPRA/PET4 was surveyed shortly after the new millenium and reported as possessing in excess of 13 bln recoverable barrels of oil.
That was about the same time that the Bush Admin. along with Murkie's approval (lacking any State legislative consideration), wrote into p. 118 of Bush's 'energy bill,' that the Secretary of Interior should be empowered to waive up to 100% of royalties/revenues pertaining to wells on federal turf up there, as an 'incentive' for further exploration. The story was first reported on by Sam Bishop, in the FDNM, who was then a Washington correspondent.
1979 was almost over-lapping that same time period that Ramona Barnes and Ed Dankworth were pushing for the Economic Limit Factor (ELF) for their oil-producing buddies and their affiliated lobbyists, poor malnourished urchins that they were and are.
GTL and LNG for Alaska in the 21stCentury !!
Under the original draft of AGIA all of Alaska's NGL's were slated to be bundled with the methane and smuggled wholesale out of Alaska to Alberta with no guarantee the NGL's were to arrive intact to the Lower48.
Two years ago many of the readers of these columns didn't know what a NGL was, now most of you know it is Natural Gas Liquids [propane, ethane, butane,etc., and helium too.. everything that's not methane].
Industry insiders and selfish politicians-&-bureaucrats were trying to hoodwink the average Alaskan into thinking "gas is gas, just let it all pass"..
These NGL's are Alaska's Heritage Resource Royalty Gas.
Efficient use of these NGL's inside Alaska can far exceed the "benefits" funny-money royalties provide for State Government to fumble with.
If properly managed The 21stCentury Alaskan Gas Economy will benefit Alaska much more than the scandalous old CrudeOil Turmoil political economics of the past.
Environmentally friendly GREEN-gas industries in Alaska will add much greater value to our resources and real-estate than the construction of a big sloppy $50billion vacuum cleaner export dredge pipe to the tarpits disaster the globalist oiligarchs want to build with your cheap labor.
http://www.ourgas.us/
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http://angtl.com/
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http://www.mygasline.com/
GTL and LNG for Alaska in the 21stCentury !!
Politicians and bigshots don't build pipelines..
they just feed off of them like mosquitoes on an artery..
..pipeliners build pipelines.
http://www.hovertrans.com/video/We_Hover...
[180mb download]
...or try this viddy link
http://video.yahoo.com/watch/285050/2018...
........flash/rumble
Respsol plans to have a new gas and oil field off the shore of Venezuela developed in 4 to 5 years. Alaska forty years of talk and what has been developed, big state government.
http://www.alaskajournal.com/stories/101...
...maybe FreeDarfur would rather get his propane from Venezuela???
DistantThunder, the LNG plant in Nikiski is thinking of letting their export license go. I guess they see a real bright future in LNG and exporting it. Seems like there are quite a few villages in Alaska that get a helping hand from South America. By the way exactly when do you expect all your wild dreams to come true, when hel_ freezes over.
I guess we'll see what the Port Authority's plans look like if it can sell the "revenue bonds". No bond sales at a low interest rate means
no confidence it it's preposed plans. Some sales at high rates of return
mean some will gamble on it's plans, with money they can afford to lose.
No sales at any rate of return means no interest/confidence in the Port
Authority's plans!
"Revenue bonds" implies a discounted rate of interest relative to what would be fetched if a private enterprise were to sell the same bonds. I wasn't happy when FDNM pandered to the idea the "revenue bonds" were innocuous to FNSB residents because they would not be paid for via taxes. While this is partially correct, FNSB taxpayers will get saddled with debt if the deal doesn't work, and at that point would therefore pay higher taxes.
DT- NGL's are and have been stripped out of the gas stream since 1986 at Prudhoe (CGF) Lisburne and Endicott. I'm guessing about 50k/bbl a day. Blended at skid 50 and shipped via TAPS. There are huge heavy oil reseves on the slope. I never thought I'd live to see it but a small amount of Ugnu oil has been produced. Heavy oil is very price sensitive. TAPS needs 250K/bbl a day to keep functioning. I work in the industry, for several years we have been reconfiguring plants on a "30 Year" basis. I'm telling you guys the old girl can dance. But you gotta ask her. She's still pretty.
10,000bpd of propane retailed at $1.16/gallon AK-statewide = $131,838,000 annual sales profit...
this looks like pretty good insurance to cover any AGPA Revenue Bonds.
If a few dozen volunteers want to help, then we could make a fair go at building the first half of the HDPE noodle-pipe to Wiseman for about $50mil.
Prudent Economics will triple this estimate with plenty of FudgeFactor..
..but I'm a stickler for cost containment, so we might surprise everybody with how cheap we can pull this off.
There's plenty of anchor-buyers of propane statewide who will support this Revenue Bond.
robir8... you make me roar with delight.
"I'm telling you guys the old girl can dance. But you gotta ask her. She's still pretty."
Tap Dancing with TAPS...
I've had a love/hate relationship with the old girl since she was a virgin.
But when she took up drinking the hard-stuff [NGL's] and puked her guts all over Prince William Sound in 1989 I started dating her little sister.
EXXON took the heat, and scapegoated Hazelwood in the press and courts..
but the real cause of 90% of the damage of the oil spill was the diluted+spiked crude-product Alyeska was shipping was in violation of the original FERC license agreement..
this was based on the original samples of N-slope crude examined by NIST in 1970..
in 1970 I held those same samples in my hands and stuck my finger in the sample can before they boarded a flight from FBX to WARshington.
The Maritime Protocols of "Coiled" Crude Tankers was the plan to minimize spill damage if a VLCC was to wreck. It was anticipated that one would probably wreck within the first 10years of operations. The planned solidification temp of the crude was a minimum 48F with very little VOC's left over. TAPS was originally designed to operate at 150F to keep the viscosity of the product low enough to pump with all of the original pump-stations operating at full power.
This is the 21stCentury now...
why don't we gasify all of the N-Slope crude underground with klystrons and ship it as LNG thru TAPS after we convert it to a cryogenic-pipeline?
...or we could convert it to DME-GTL at PS4.
The possibilities are endless if the industry would quit blowing it's $$$ like a drunken sailor.
Exxon's recent mega-million investment into algae-oil and Synthetic Genomics indicates Alaska's crude economy has some very serious competition in the next decade.. soon there will be many new sustainable sources of clean-crude and infinite-energies that will foreshorten the 30year planning cycles.
http://peswiki.com/index.php/Main_Page
Jay you owe my kids an explaination why you took the money from OBamhahahaha!!! I clusterfarked you to the chinese!!
I will be reg. to vote in the right district this year & it will be just to vote against you!!! And to think just a few years ago I thought YOU where a stand up guy!!! YOU SOLD US OUT!!!!!!
"There's plenty of anchor-buyers of propane statewide who will support this Revenue Bond."-DT
Does your reference to revenue bonds mean you seek financial support or backing from the FNSB?
http://newsminer.com/weblogs/dermot-cole...
Yusef.. check my 6:22am post in the "Fired up over Propane" thread on Dermot's page today.
At the present time I'm ambivalent, neither for or against AGPA/ANGDA floating a Revenue Bond.. Throughout the history of Alaska, and the history of USA, shiploads of $$$$$$$ have been bamboozled from the public trust in broad daylight. If you want to eliminate corruption and it's ugly sister, incompetence, go for it. If you want to pass gas without it costing you an arm&leg, go for it. But to do both at once takes real teamwork...
...and so far the only teams who have contacted me for my help and advice has been ANGDA and AGPA...
..the rest has been a few dozen individuals who don't have a pot to pee in or the window to throw it out of.
[just like me !!]
Yes, at this stage of the game it's possible for an ad-hoc coalition of honest citizens to coalesce into a TundraRebellion and we can go pursue an independent cooperative effort to develop the statewide SmartGaslineNetwork constructed of polypipe and fiberoptics.. which technically isn't a heck of a lot different than GCI plowing in hundreds of miles of fiberoptic in poly conduit already.
FreeDarfur, those who see using a resource as "raping" it are the reason we can't develop into a thriving economy, sure the rest of the world can have business but not us, we can't because you and a few others say so, Jay's right we are NOT just a park for rich tourists we need everyday business and we need everyday goods to be made here and sold elsewhere. The money's trickling out now, you can only circulate so much before you need an import and we can't afford to import forever without exporting, ie. "raping" something.
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