Blog: Dermot Cole
Alaska jobs and federal spending
Published Wednesday, February 18, 2009
The estimate that the new stimulus law would create or save 8,000 jobs in Alaska is derived from a federal review that warns against putting too much emphasis on an exact number right now.
The memo from the White House that outlined the likely impact of a stimulus law did not contain a state-by-state breakdown, but it provided a framework that was apparently used to generate job estimates for each state.
"It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error," said Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein.
"Our estimates of economic relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity."
The analysis also includes assumptions about state taxes and state spending that don't apply to Alaska, where there is no state income tax or state sales tax.
"One additional source of uncertainty concerns the impact of the state fiscal relief. We believe that the rule of thumb that 60 percent of funds devoted to state relief will be used to prevent spending cuts and that 30 percent will be used to prevent tax increases, and that these effects will occur with a lag of about three months, are good first approximations. But, the effects will clearly differ across states, and the average could differ from what we have assumed. Another source of uncertainty concerns the jobs effects of a given increase in GDP. Again, we think that our assumption that the relation between higher GDP and increased employment is the same across the different components of the package is a good starting point. But the exact effects are likely to vary somewhat across components."
The paper released in January, "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan," was the basis for the estimate that 8,000 jobs would be created under the new law in Alaska, as well as in North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.
For the complete report, go to http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf.
Alaska has a number of infrastructure projects that have engineer complete or soon to be completed, that for the most part, have been set on the back burner for years for lack of funding or "political decisions". Weatherization, public building maintenance and construction to meet standards, water and sewer projects, road, bridges, docks, electrical systems, health clinics and harbors are just a small sample of JOBS that could benefit Alaska for years to come, if the economic stimulus package is looking for sustainable growth and economic development.
Unfortunately, the power plays of politicians in Juneau often fail to visualize the needs and potential of Alaska, beyond their own District or political agenda. One only has to travel to rural Alaska to get a glimpse of America's Bangladesh.
Will State and Federal agencies make the effort to address chronic unemployment and in some cases, correct life threatening problems OR will we just continue with the same old patterned of "Out of sight, out of mind"?
Major construction projects take time to assemble all the necessary permits, right-aways, material and design changes before the first shovel of dirt is ever moved. Mid and small scale projects most often have far shorter start-up time. It is when we begin to compile all the many smaller projects that the quality of life and economic benefit from all parts of the state that the HUGE positive impact and spin-off of private sector stimulus can be measured.
"It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant margins of error,"
IMO when they say 'significant margins of error' they really mean it's a guess and nothing more....
Don't get me started on the jobs created 'OR SAVED' again....
The stimulus bill is exactly the wrong thing to do and it is sad that Alaskans are lining up with their hands out to the federal government like a bunch of children at Christmas. Pathetic really.
Federal spending doesn't save or create jobs. It simply crowds out private investment while putting the nation even further into debt and/or inflating our money supply...thereby putting another hidden tax on all of us through a rising price level for the goods and services that we all require for basic survival.
We all need to realize that there is a normal business cycle that includes recessionary periods along with the expansionary booms. It is expected that after a long boom period that we suffer through a recession to cool things off and to return the nation to a more normal economic state.
The problem for the past 20 years is that the politicians (both sides) have encouraged the Federal Reserve to inflate the money supply (or lower interest rates, same thing) to over stimulate the economy to artificially keep us in the boom phase of the business cycle. That game is finally coming to a close and now we'll suffer through a magnified recession/depression.
Realize that there is nothing that any level of government or the Federal Reserve can do to stop what needs to happen. We're going to suffer through a huge economic contraction that will force our economy to return to the mean and anything they do to try and stop it will just make it worse.
All individuals can do is to transition into survival mode because all of this is pretty much out of our hands. Bunker up and hang on tight - it is going to be a very rough ride!
While the State may have "Dream List" of projects you need to see the project list posted at the following website:
www.stimuluswatch.org/project/by_state/A...
I find it EXTREMELY interesting that Anchorage and it's projects is the ONLY city listed. Now, just how is this going to help Fairbanks????
I can't believe anyone would give much weight to any estimate derived from a bill that originally had contraceptives as part of it's spending items. Were we trying to save jobs at the condom factory?
Furthermore, it was estimated by the CBO that only a small percentage (less than 20%) would actually get spent this year. How is it that this thing is going to save us from Satan's power by passing it quickly, at the behest of our Great Leader, when most of the money won't even be spent this year?
The Kool-lade is packin' a mighty punch these days, they're starting to believe everything for extended periods of time now.
This is where we are headed with Obama's Axis of Mediocrity. Putin warns U.S. democrats against turning to socialism:
"We must not revert to isolationism and unrestrained economic egotism... Excessive intervention in economic activity and blind faith in the state's omnipotence is another possible mistake. True, the state's increased role in times of crisis is a natural reaction to market setbacks. Instead of streamlining market mechanisms, some are tempted to expand state economic intervention to the greatest possible extent... In the 20th century, the Soviet Union made the state's role absolute. In the long run, this made the Soviet economy totally uncompetitive. This lesson cost us dearly. I am sure nobody wants to see it repeated."
Russian Prime Minister Vladamir Putin
Opening ceremony of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
January 28, 2009
While Alaskan Eunuchs keep their needygreedy eyes on Uncle Sugars beastmilk....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMOOT5Z1O...
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http://news.google.com/news?ned=us&h...
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The analysis-paralysis of the distractor-factor about whether Petrotheism is superior to Judaeo-Christian philosophy keeps everybody occupied while shuffling their way to the foodbank.
..while we wait for the Platinum Plated Boondoggle to be built to the TarSands of Alberta so the CorporateKings can suck 2% more of the oxygen out of the atmosphere.
I expect to hear next month that Anchorage will be importing LNG from Gazprom.
www.allalaskagasline.com munist
anybody wanna help build a little noodle pipe full of propane in a hurry???
<<<<<Federal spending doesn't save or create jobs>>>>
really??? paid five-deferments-dick's salary for years at haliburton....
101:
It's that the best you can do?
it negated the statement. all that was needed. but, if you care to take a swing........batter up!
101:
Both political parties have mud on them. Both will equally share the blame for this economic mess and both will be standing in line, together, to buy $10 bread in due time.
Here is a chart that simplifies the stim bill
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/gr...
mike:
This is just government spending packaged as "stimulus". The one thing the chart proves is that it is an aggregation of pet projects.
A year from now people will not be talking about the "stimulus" in terms of success, but rather a wasted opportunity on another wasteful government program.
Read this to get an idea of the direction Obama will take us: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/colum...
Society is Broken... I am right there with you! Great posts! Who are we saving here... not the middle class... but the greedy, business and upper class that gambeled and lost with over spending and toxic investments or the irresponsible lower, both groups whom are leaching off our tax dollars. I feel like we are on the Titanic and I'm watching people scramble to get into a boat... who is realy being saved?
The system is broken. I knew it a year and a half ago. We live in a country with an economy based on credit and it is coming to a head.
Then we had the Perfect Storm when oil prices based on speculation went up to $147 a barrel and people stopped spending, driving and traveling.
American homeowners and business owners could not afford the increases in energy costs because the lower and middle class primarily all live month-to-month and businesses depend on credit.
All the bailouts and stimulus packages will ultimately fail. Why you ask?
Because the fundamentals of our financial system is based upon credit (nothing changes) and we are borrowing more money (more debt, more interest) and printing more money (dilution of the dollar) to pay for these bailouts and packages.
An economic system based upon credit is not sustainable and doomed to fail. These massive bailouts and packages merely prolong the inevitable.
Do you know why you feel broke? It is because you are broke. Look at this chart carefully:
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0774473.h...
Do you know why our economy is based upon credit? It is so the people with the most money can make more money. Watch these movies and you will get a clue what is happening:
http://www.zeitgeistmovie.com/
Do I know how to fix it? No. Do the greatest financial minds of the world know how to fix it? No.
According to Republicans and Democrats (who can no longer be differentiated), the only solution is more credit, more spending and more debt.
The solution offered by both political parties is simply more of the same. It is economically impossible for an economy to be based upon credit to thrive, so these measures of borrowing more and spending more will only make things worse.
The only one who stood against this nonsense in Washington was (and is) Ron Paul.
Attention:
Catatonic Zombie Alaskans..
and WalMart Shoppers..
see....
I told ya Anchorage will be importing LNG from Russia..
http://www.alaskajournal.com/stories/022...
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20/2/2009
Sakhalin II begins cooling natural gas
Huge facility looks to new energy frontiers
by Adam Duckett
Until now, Russian oil and gas were mainly sold to Europe
THE LONG-AWAITED SAKHALIN II LNG plant has come onstream opening up new energy markets for Russian resources.
The plant, which has been under construction since 2003, incorporates two 100,000 m3 LNG processing trains, a jetty, laboratory, control centre and storage tanks. The first LNG shipment is scheduled next month. Longterm contracts for a majority of the plant’s 9.6m t/y capacity will bring Russian resources to new frontiers in Japan, Korea and North America. Until now, Russian oil and gas were mainly sold to Europe.
Sakhalin II is one of the world’s largest integrated oil and gas facilities. It includes three offshore platforms, an onshore processing facility, 300 km of offshore pipelines, 1600 km of onshore pipelines, an LNG plant, and an oil export facility.
Sakhalin Energy’s ceo Ian Craig says: “Sakhalin has now firmly established its position on the global energy map. When the Sakhalin II project is fully on stream, it will supply around 5% of the world’s LNG.”
Sakhalin Energy is joint venture operating company consisting of a number of multinational energy majors. Gazprom holds 50% plus one share of Sakhalin Energy, Shell 27.5% minus one share; Mitsui 12.5%, and Mitsubishi 10%.
Get the feds and their regulation out of our state and we could certainly stimulate our own economy.
Now why, would Fairbanks deserve or get any money. Mr Whitaker's man is in the big Office..... SURPRISE...SURPRISE...SURPRISE...
Remember, he supported Obama...
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